ZeroGEX · Morning Forecast

SPX · Thursday, November 5, 2026

Committed 2026-11-05T13:30:22.418211+00:00 · receipt at 4:05 PM ET

Expected range

$7595.19 - $7925.76

−1.30% / +3.00% · Walls · VIX/VXN · ATR blend · 90% coverage target

Expected volatility

Normal

expect 0.94× normal · flip-cross 48% · informational - not graded

Key levels

3 in play

Touch odds on the ladder below · gravity $7690.00 while long-γ

Levels & touch odds

P(price reaches this line today)

Call wallresistance

$8000.00

Open spot

$7694.91

- you are here -

Max-gammagravity

$7690.00

pull center while long-γ

Gamma flipregime line

$7669.08

48%

Put wallsupport

$7650.00

22%

We do not forecast which way SPX goes.

Three claims - how far price can travel (range), how much it actually moves versus what’s priced in (volatility), and which dealer lines it reaches (levels). Gamma structure conditions all three. Direction it does not.

Rolling 30-day track record (n=29)

Range coverage · n=29

86%

95% CI 69%-95%

▲ vs target 80%

Levels Brier

0.17

Expected‑volatility is informational, not graded: over the last 29 corrected‑scale receipts it called 17% vs a 41% majority‑bucket baseline - no edge yet, so we publish the call for transparency but don’t score it. Range coverage and levels calibration are the graded claims.

About this forecast

Daily commitment for SPX written each morning before the open, hashed and immutable. The projected range is anchored on the open spot and bounded by the GEX call/put walls with a safety expansion (event days get a 1.5× stretch); it’s graded on coverage - an 80-90% band should contain the day that often. Key levels carry the reflection-principle odds that price reaches each wall and crosses the gamma flip today (scaled to the calibrated intraday move), graded by Brier score. These two - range coverage and levels calibration - are the graded claims, each shown with a 95% confidence interval and a baseline to beat. Expected volatility (realized daily range as a multiple of a normal day’s range, √(8/π)≈1.6× the implied 1-day move, calibrated per symbol so 1.0 is an ordinary day) is published for transparency but is informational, not graded: on our history it doesn’t beat a majority-bucket baseline, so we won’t score a call we can’t back up. The receipt is written once at 4:05 PM ET from the day’s actual cash-session OHLC and is immutable thereafter.

Model: heuristic_v1_5 · hash f11912b0cc14